Rasheed Kidwai
– Rasheed Kidwai is a Delhi-based columnist, author of Sonia A Biography and visiting fellow, Observer Research Foundation
Perhaps the most significant outcome of General Election 2024 is that Rahul Gandhi can now shed the failure tag. His biggest contribution was that he improved Congress’ national vote share from 19 to 22 percent
The General Election 2024 verdict has something for everyone. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi has successfully fashioned a 3.0 government by stitching a coalition NDA alliance with support from the Telugu Desam Party and the Janata Dal (United), Rahul Gandhi, Akhilesh Yadav, Uddhav Thackeray, Mamata Banerjee and Sharad Pawar have also been rewarded for their grit and resilience. Together, they provided strength to the INDIA alliance and gave PM Modi, BJP, NDA and a section of hawkish media shivers down their spines. In fact, the opposition has reasons to reflect upon missed chances to unseat the BJP at the Centre.
The BJP too made several tactical errors. The sidelining of regional satraps like Vasundhara Raje Scindia in Rajasthan, and other states proved costly. Also too many last-minute changes in candidates selection and polarising electioneering damaged it. Over-reliance on prime minister Modi in the hustings should bother the BJP for a long time. The party became a victim of its own propaganda believing that the pran pratishta ceremony at the new Ram Temple in Ayodhya, would give them a distinct electoral advantage in Uttar Pradesh, the country’s most populous and politically significant state. It also erroneously assumed that the Mayawati-led BSP would split the INDIA alliance’s Dalit and Muslim votes. Instead, the BJP lost the Faizabad-Ayodhya Lok Sabha seat and a CSDS post poll showed Rahul Gandhi ahead of Modi in Uttar Pradesh as a preferred prime ministerial candidate.
Now the Modi-led BJP faces rather bleak prospects in the Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Jammu & Kashmir assembly polls scheduled to be held in October. The BJP is hoping for division within the MVA alliance in Maharashtra, but Uddhav Thackeray, Sharad Pawar and the Congress are confident that their seat-sharing formula and assembly election outcome will further rattle BJP.
Nevertheless, the Congress and INDIA alliance must also be ruing missed opportunities in General Election 2024, particularly in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha where tacit or tactical alliances were not sealed. In Odisha, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar then representing the INDIA alliance had paid a visit to Bhubaneswar to request BJD chief Naveen Patnaik to join the alliance but after Kumar defected to BJP/NDA, the negotiations were not followed up with BJD, resulting in the triumph of BJP-NDA.
In national coalition politics since the 1980s, Andhra Pradesh and TDP have played a historic and crucial role. In 1984, the TDP was the single largest opposition party in the Lok Sabha. Actor-turned politician and Chandrababu Naidu’s father-in-law N.T. Rama Rao emerged as the convenor of the National Front that enabled Congress rebel Vishwanath Pratap Singh to win the office of prime minister in 1989. The National Front-Left Front government was supported by BJP from the outside.
This time round, BJP with barely 1 percent of vote share in Andhra Pradesh did well to tie-up with the Telugu Desam Party and Jana Sena, whereas INDIA alliance remained friendless despite chief minister Jagan Mohan Reddy having been in the Congress parivar earlier.
Yet perhaps the most significant outcome of General Election 2024 is that Rahul Gandhi can now shed the failure tag. His biggest contribution wasn’t that he won from Wayanad and Rae Bareli, but that he improved Congress’ national vote share from 19 to 22 percent through his gruelling all-India yatras. His direct interaction with the masses gave him the confidence that surprised many of his party colleagues, friends and foes. Rahul has finally arrived on the national scene earning the respect and dignity that he deserves. The Congress in turn, has found a leader whose political instincts can be trusted.
Now the bond between Gandhis and the Congress is set to be further strengthened by the Priyanka factor. Congress leaders of all hues and shades are delighted that Priyanka has emerged as an effective campaigner through seven phases of electioneering. Her responses to PM Modi’s lines of attack were spontaneous, yet dignified. She has exhibited ability to gel with party leaders, act as crisis and party manager rolled into one. Her political equation with brother Rahul has been easy, friendly and accommodating, negating any prospect of “rival camps” being created within the Congress ecosystem.
Senior party leaders say there aren’t many examples of a political party worldwide where a brother-sister combination has worked so well in a democratic polity. In the past three years, Priyanka has filled the role of Ahmed Patel in sorting out internal differences, conciliation and turf wars. She is now set to contest the Wayanad Lok Sabha bypoll likely to be held simultaneously with assembly polls in Haryana and Maharashtra. Her likely win will provide a unique occasion when Parliament will have three members belonging to a family. Simultaneously, the Rahul-Priyanka-Kharge Congress leadership is all set to call the shots in an environment of harmony and mutual respect.