The surprise result of general Election 2024 in which the ruling BJP which had set itself a target of 400 seats of the total 543 in the 18th Lok Sabha won a mere 240 and for the first time since 2014 has to rely on its NDA (National Democratic Alliance) allies to form a government at the Centre, has attracted widespread comment and analyses. Yet most political pundits who have presented learned analyses have focused on parts of the whole without quite being able to see the big picture.
In his seminal book Thinking Fast and Slow (2002), Nobel Prize winner behavioural economist Daniel Kahneman stresses the importance of System 1 and System 2 decision making.
S1 decisions need to be made quickly, perhaps instinctively, as in anticipation of a car driving accident. S2 decisions that may have widespread consequences have to be made deliberatively, after careful reflection, explains Dr. Kahneman. Evidently, neither the prime minister nor any of his inner circle of advisors are aware of this vital distinction.
Therefore, several important initiatives of the Modi administration — sudden demonetisation of 80 percent of the currency in circulation (2016); the Covid-19 lockdown of the economy, with four hours public notice (2020); speedy implementation of GST (2017); enactment of the three farm reform Bills (2020) and fast-track construction of the Ram Janmabhoomi temple in Ayodhya (2024) — all S2 decisions that required deliberation, debate and consultation, were made with the speed and urgency of S1 decisions.
Not a few media pundits tend to approve of bold, speedy decision making as a virtue contrasting it with ‘analysis paralysis.’ But it’s now clear that peremptory demonetisation was a big mistake which severely damaged MSMEs (micro, small and medium enterprises) that employ 80 percent of the country’s industrial workforce. MSMEs were further damaged by hasty introduction of the complicated national GST (goods and services) tax which has also become a huge source of illegal gratification for venal bureaucrats. The consequential slowdown of MSMEs is a major cause of rising youth unemployment and inflation, which badly hurt the BJP in General Election 2024.
Likewise, the farm reforms legislation which was well-conceived and in the national interest, was enacted with unwarranted haste without debate and inflicted big damage in rural India, fuelling food inflation. Similarly, construction of the Ram Temple was completed without consideration of the property rights of farmers and shopkeepers in Ayodhya.
The prime minister also overplayed his hand by reverting to demonise the country’s 230 million-strong Muslim minority. It’s time he became aware that in 21st century India, defined by large-scale internal migration, the electorate has become accustomed to — and increasingly dependent upon — ethnic, linguistic and religious minorities. The citizenry needs peace and stability to get on with their lives and businesses. If the BJP has been voted back in New Delhi, it’s because of the obsolescence of the Congress party, whose leadership still believes in destroying wealth creators and reinstating moribund Nehruvian socialism.
Also read: Elections must reflect will of all people
