A wide variation in different countries’ success in tackling Covid-19 could lead to major winners and losers in the coming battle to recruit international students, it has been predicted. Perceptions that some nations have struggled to contain the outbreak could be the difference between university sectors losing millions or billions of dollars, according to calculations by Times Higher Education.

Dire predictions about the losses that some universities could sustain were amplified in May after a report suggested that the pandemic could result in a drop in new overseas enrolments at UK universities of almost 100,000 students, a fall of close to 50 percent.

But global education experts familiar with how international student mobility has changed over the past two decades suggest that such a dramatic downturn in recruitment might not necessarily be replicated everywhere. Jamil Salmi, former tertiary education coordinator for the World Bank, told THE that there’s plenty of evidence from recent years of students shifting their overseas study preferences.

Examples include the number of Indians studying in Australia almost halving from 2010 to 2012 after a number of racist attacks in the country and the effect on recruitment of the UK’s (now reversed) decision in 2012 to end post-study work visas. “I think that international student flows are very reactive to what happens,” says Salmi, adding that the main factors influencing decisions about where to study abroad are a country’s visa regime, financial costs and general considerations such as safety.

Potential evidence that students might consider countries’ handling of the Covid-19 crisis can be found in recent surveys of prospective students in key nations such as India and China. For instance, British Council survey data suggest that almost 80 percent of Chinese and about two-thirds of Indians planning to study abroad are very concerned about health and well-being in host nations.

The same surveys highlight that between 20-30 percent of Indian and Chinese students who had applied for a course saying they have cancelled or postponed their plans or are likely to do so. A further 40 percent in China and 14 percent in India are undecided.

Dr. Salmi says international students might well scrutinise different countries’ handling of the coronavirus crisis, and even if English-speaking nations remained their favoured destinations, they might choose to switch where in the Anglosphere they study. “You still have Australia, New Zealand and Canada that have handled (the crisis) much better than the UK and the US, and these are also English speaking countries,” he says. “The prestige of UK and US universities will help, but still we might see some shifts, and a 10 percent shift is a big amount of money.”

Simon Marginson, professor of higher education at the University of Oxford, told THE that “Covid-19 and the tardy and inadequate responses, especially of the US and the UK governments”, are factors affecting Chinese decision-making on Western education. “Most of the previous demand for English-language country education will restore, but there will have been an uplift in the demand for China, Japan, Korea and also — if it permits more entry — Taiwan.”