Although government leaders and spokespersons proclaim from every housetop and public platform that the Indian economy is clocking “highest worldwide” GDP growth and is in a sweet-spot smoothly navigating towards the objectives of Viksit Bharat and a $30 trillion (from the current $3 trillion) GDP by 2047, the reality is that it is sailing in deceptively treacherous waters that could sink it very quickly.
Rising youth unemployment, inflation and pernicious administrative corruption against the backdrop of continuous stoking of communal, caste and religious tensions could quick-start a whirlpool that could rapidly overwhelm the ship of state. To prevent such an eventuality it is important to make a proper diagnosis of the Indian polity and economy.
The major and most enduring infirmity of the Indian state is that despite the relatively high GDP growth rates of the new millennium, annual GDP growth of over seven decades in post-independence India has averaged a mere 4 percent, even as the country’s population has quadrupled.
The socialist heavy industry, capital intensive development model has failed abysmally to provide adequate employment for the world’s largest youth population. Currently, youth (15-29 age group) unemployment is at an all-time high of 10.2 percent even as 60 percent of the population is under-employed in the agriculture sector. Clearly, the inorganic socialist development model has failed and needs to be jettisoned bag and baggage.
The root cause of pervasive unemployment/under-employment that is destabilising law and order countrywide, is continuous neglect of public education, especially primary-secondary learning. Continuous under-investment averaging a mere 3-3.5 percent of GDP per year (cf. global average of 5 percent) in human resource development has wrecked the country’s 1.20 million government schools defined by crumbling buildings, multigrade classrooms, chronic teacher absenteeism and rock-bottom learning outcomes. Weak foundational education is carried forward into higher education institutions where misalignment of syllabuses/curriculums with expectations of India Inc has exacerbated the unemployment problem.
The third national infirmity that needs urgent redressal is over-liberal affirmative action, aka reservation, in higher education and government jobs. While there is an arguable case for persistence with reservations at entry level for scheduled castes and tribes, extension of reservation to OBCs (other backward castes/classes) has enabled mass entry of an under-educated, amoral lumpen bourgeoisie into higher education institutions and public administration, driving down academic standards and government productivity.
Grasping these nettles is the precondition of realizing the ambitious goals set for Viksit Bharat 2047.