Dr. Neeraj Kaushal is professor of social policy at Columbia University, USA
Skill levels below a thin top layer plummet. India needs a second, third and fourth layer of well-educated and skilled youth to keep the economic growth momentum going
Neeraj Kaushal
India aspires to become a developed nation by 2047, to mark a century after independence from almost two hundred years of colonial British rule. It’s an exhilirating goal. A lot will depend on global conditions. If the world economy staggers or turns tepid, India is unlikely to attain this objective.
Yet, given the momentum of India’s growth over the past three decades, this goal is not beyond the realm of possibility. My calculations indicate that we will likely miss the target by 10-15 years. But even that would be a commendable achievement — a feat that no nation of India’s size has accomplished so fast!
To acquire the status of Viksit Bharat by 2047, the Indian economy would need an annual real (adjusted for inflation) GDP growth of close to 10 percent for almost a quarter century. We are aspiring for nothing less than a miracle that has happened only once in global history — the Chinese economy recorded a double-digit annual GDP growth in the 1978-2010 period, before coming down to more earthly levels of growth, 6-7 percent thereafter and even lower, 4 percent in the 2020s. My projection of India becoming a viksit (developed) country by 2060 assumes real 7 percent annual GDP growth, a target that should not be taken for granted.
The promise of India rests on investment made in education and skilling of its children and youth. Currently, India has a thin creamy layer of talent at the top, trained from a handful of IITs and top universities in India and abroad. This thin top layer outcompetes the rest of the world and is in high demand globally. Many from this top layer have joined Fortune 500 companies with several running them.
Thus far this top crust has been sufficient to provide stimulus for an average long-term GDP growth of close to 7 percent a year since 2000. But skill levels below this veneer plummet. India needs to create a second, third and fourth layer of well-educated youth to keep the growth momentum going.
What has been done so far in raising the skill levels of workers below the creamy layer is disgraceful. Over the past two decades, a large number of professional universities have mushroomed to train engineers, doctors, nurses, managers, and professionals in other fields. Over 10 million youngsters graduate from Indian universities every year. But a vast majority lack marketable skills.
Meanwhile political parties and pundits are groaning that India is suffering a jobs crisis. The argument is that while the Indian economy has been growing at record high rates, it has failed to create jobs for millions of aspiring youth. Yet the crisis is more of a skills deficit. There are millions of youngsters with degrees in engineering, management, nursing who lack the requisite skills and hence, they don’t get the jobs for which they have paper qualifications.
Simultaneously, business and industry leaders complain about shortages of skilled workers. Indian engineering colleges graduate 1.5 million engineers every year, the largest number worldwide. This should be sufficient to fulfill the economy’s need for engineers. Alas, no. Only 10 percent of these graduates have the skills to be hired as engineers, according to a report by the National Association of Software and Service Companies (NASSCOM).
NASSCOM estimates that Indian industry will need more than one million engineers in AI and other advanced engineering fields in the next two-three years. Unless engineering colleges determinedly change their programs to impart industry specific skills needed in future, millions of engineers will remain unemployed and engineering vacancies will remain unfilled.
The root problem is that a majority of engineers who graduate from Indian colleges lack real-world skills that employers need. According to Bhaskar Chakravorti, Dean of Global Business at The Fletcher School of Tufts University, only 5 percent of India’s workforce has received formal skills training. In Japan and South Korea, the proportion is over 80 percent.
This problem is not limited to engineering. The same goes for other professional schools. Thousands of nurses graduate from Indian nursing schools, but most don’t have the basic skills to provide care in nursing homes and hospitals. The challenge in the coming decade is how to improve the quality of education in universities and professional schools across the country.
Development has many dimensions. India cannot become a developed country if a quarter of youth, aged 14-18, enrolled in rural schools are not able to read class II texts in their own language, as reported by the Annual Status of Education Report (ASER). India cannot be a Viksit nation if 57 percent of its 14-18 year-olds cannot do simple math calculations expected from class III students.
The gaps in learning get wider as these youth move to higher classes. The sad reality is that while this problem was detected at least a decade ago, the remedy has not yet been found. All innovations to address education quality have been at the margins. A skilled workforce is the foundation of a Viksit nation, without which India will remain in the gaga land of slogans and unfulfilled dreams.
Also read: Neeraj Kaushal: Low-price low-quality equilibrium
